For the majority of businesses and investors, 2009 is bound to be a difficult year. After the 1929 Wall Street crash of almost 80 years ago, the world did not emerge from the economic abyss - nor embrace the prosperity brought about by the electronic and information revolution - until it had experienced a prolonged recession (the Great Depression of the 1930s) and a bloody world war. In retrospect, it appears that after each major economic cycle, some revolutionary new technology is developed and comes into widespread use. For instance, semi-conductor technology - fundamental to the computer revolution - is based on electricity, which became ubiquitous during the 20th century. Economic cycles are also usually coupled with particular historical events or the rise of social movements, which in turn result in the periodic rise and fall of powers, such as the two world wars in the last century or the Greenpeace Movement of the new century.

As a new economic cycle dawns in 2009, the existence of today’s advanced civilization, as well as the massive destructive potential of nuclear weapons, mean the possibility of war being waged for natural resources or new markets is unlikely. However, the shock effects of the environmental protection and green movements may be just as far-reaching as those resulting from wars. In the last economic cycle, the wide use of “clean” electric power gave birth to the rise of the semi-conductor and computer industries. But this “clean power” was still mainly produced by highly polluting fossil fuels such as coal and oil. In the new economic cycle, the usurping of the role of fossil fuels in the production of energy by clean, highly efficient energy sources will continue to increase.

When we look at the provenance of these new sources of power, we find that such innovations would have been impossible without the application of two academic disciplines: physics and mathematics - and in the new economic cycle they continue to play a crucial role. Examining these two fields a little more closely, it emerges that the basic physics on which semi-conductor technology depends has wide applications in many areas of material science. Similarly, Internet technology will be further boosted by innovations in the field of mathematics. As it becomes necessary to manipulate ever-larger masses of raw data, algorithms will become more and more important, and cloud computing and distributed data centers more widely used. It is clear that as the mobile terminal and the Internet become increasingly integrated, competition rules and the pace of industrial advance will experience further reshuffles.

Last, but not least, we may be in a position to forecast the rise of the world’s next economic giant. 2009 will not only mark the beginning of a new economic cycle, but could also see the emergence of one dominated by China, based on its know-how and independent innovation. The history of commercial technology shows that innovation and the wide application of technology are not only driven by scientific advances, but also by business and market forces. A host of new technologies, including electric vehicles and clean energy sources could emerge in 2009. This is due on the one hand to China’s strength in science and technology (for instance, a large talent pool in the areas of basic material science and mathematics) and, on the other hand, to China’s huge market creating an enormous stimulus to drive innovation. In brief, close attention should be paid to technology and innovation in 2009, as new developments in business technology are likely to set the tone for a new China-dominated economic cycle.